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You know to expect a wacky Saturday of college football when one of the most pivotal games on the schedule sets an undefeated team as a 3-point underdog. Unbeaten Minnesota at Iowa is going to be a game – with apologies to Georgia vs Auburn … which has the makings of a boring, low-scoring game – and I’m honestly surprised Iowa is favored. It’s eye-opening, given what Minnesota did last week at home vs. a then-unbeaten Penn State team.
It’s a classic example of a “Pros” vs “Joes” matchup … the professional gamblers will bet on Iowa, because they know a bunch of 20-year olds who just won the school’s biggest game in at least a decade probably spent the week partying and a letdown on the road is likely where they’re the hunted, not the hunter. The “Joes” – ie: Joe Public recreational gambler – will gravitate to Minnesota, because that kind of gambler usually bets what he saw last week … and everyone saw Minnesota beat Penn State from wire-to-wire. Historically, this has been a spot for Iowa – so this week, I’m siding with the “Joes” here.
Ohio State -31.5 at Rutgers
Ohio State is a 53.5-point road favorite against Rutgers … folks, that’s another record! Remember: Last week’s spread of 42 was a record in the Big 10 dating back to 1978. I think – just to be on the safe side – you should take Ohio State in the first half. Now, you just know this number is going to be massive: 31.5 … that means Ohio State essentially has to score on every possession in the first half.
I think they can do it – this team is a powerhouse … and Rutgers, well, they are just not very good. They can’t stop the run, they can’t stop the pass and they are weak on special teams. Ohio State is the side here, favored by 31.5 in the first half.
Clemson vs. Wake Forest -20.5
No. 2 in the lineup is a Super 6 – Clemson is a huge favorite against Wake Forest … and I like Clemson in the first half here. Here’s the game plan: They’re going to get a big lead and then rest their starters in the second half. And again, Clemson’s defense against the pass: No. 2 in the country. I think they suffocate Wake Forest – they beat them by almost 60 points last year. Give me Clemson in the first half to cover Wake Forest.
Georgia at Auburn under 40.5
Next up: Georgia is a 2.5-point road favorite in Auburn. The total here is 40 … and it’s been plunging folks. It was 45 earlier in the week – a lot of money coming in on the total.
This is a Super 6 game and a great one, with national championship implications … obviously a big game for both teams. I’m going to take the total the here. I know, I know I do a lot sides – don’t do a lot of totals. But I just feel Georgia, with its slowdown offense and heavy on the run game – they are going to play to not make mistakes … and they don’t have a vertical passing game.
I would lean to Auburn if I had to pick a side, but they have a true freshman quarterback. I just have a sneaky suspicion this is going to be low scoring … smells like a 17-14 type game. Give me the under: 40 points in Auburn vs. Georgia.
Minnesota +3 at Iowa
You might be asking yourself: How is an undefeated Minnesota team – which looked great last week beating Penn State – how are they underdogs? Well, that should be a sign that somebody setting the lines knows something. Perhaps it’s that Iowa has lost three games to ranked teams for a combined total of 14 points – two of those games were on the road … this is an interesting one at home.
I like Minnesota here – I have to stick with the better team getting those three points. This feels like a field goal game … three is that key number for me. Minnesota: 6-0 against the spread against the Big 10. I think PJ Fleck gets it done and the Golden Gophers cover three points on the road.
We’ve got another Super 6 game! Baylor – the undefeated Bears – are 10-point underdogs against Oklahoma. Now this is another head scratcher, am I right? I honestly don’t know if Lincoln Riley can travel to Wacko and dominate … I have to take Baylor getting the 10 points. Oklahoma has just been so hit or miss – they didn’t cover again last week and are only 4-5 against the spread this year.
We know that defense remains a joke outside of its amazing performance against Texas. Baylor has had some close games … it makes me wonder: If they are a good team shouldn’t they handedly beat West Virginia and Texas Tech? But those were one score games. I still I think Baylor can keep it close enough to cover – I’m in on Baylor getting 10 points.
LSU at Ole Miss under 65
And finally, LSU, a 21 point road favorite at Ole Miss. The total here: 65 points. And again, I’m throwing a little curve ball at you. If you’ve been watching these videos every week … I’ve been picking the sides. Hey, when you’re struggling, you try something new! I’m going with the under of 65 points.
I know, that’s going to run counter to everything you’ve seen. LSU – a top five offense in the country – just scored 46 points on Alabama … but I feel there is going to be a bit of a let down here. And we’ve seen the formula to keep it close against LSU: Run the football – Ole Miss does that.
They are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games. They covered at home against Texas A&M – very impressive showing – and covered at home against Auburn. I think Ole Miss keeps it close by running the football. And after that huge win off Alabama, I think they struggle at times – I’m taking LSU to win but give me under 65 points for this matchup.
Source: Fox Sports